Sudan has no reliable single count of people with special needs. Anyone offering one is either relying on an old census or generalising from a global average. This project therefore plans against a range, and names the three reference points behind it.
First, the 2008 Sudan census. It recorded disability prevalence of roughly 4.8% across the states that make up present-day Sudan, and a higher 6.8% in River Nile State. We treat this as a floor: the census did not use the Washington Group questions on functional difficulty, and did not adequately separate autism, intellectual disability, developmental delay and learning disorders.
Second, Sudan's humanitarian planning standard of 15%. Adopted by the 2025 Sudan Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan, drawn from global averages because wartime field assessments cannot measure prevalence accurately.
Third, the World Health Organization's estimate of 16%. Around 1.3 billion people — close to a sixth of the world — live with a significant disability. Need rises in communities affected by war, displacement, injury, malnutrition and disrupted healthcare.
The methodological result: planning runs across a range, from 4.8%–6.8% as a conservative historical floor, through 15% as a realistic planning scenario under current conditions, to 16% as a long-term global benchmark.
These percentages do not mean everyone needs permanent institutional care. Some need only early detection or an assistive device; some need intermittent rehabilitation; a smaller share needs intensive services or long-term residential support.